How do you know what # Raptor you have based on VIN?

Jeffrman said:
No idea if I ordered good, cheap or fast but...my VIN is 1FMEE5JR5PLB00780 and my order just changed from scheduled to assigned to a plant. After four date changes,

Did your order get assigned to a plant last week?
I think my March 6th build date may be for real.
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It actually got assigned 10 days ago, but just today it slipped from 3/6 to 3/10. I'll wait until I see a window sticker before I believe any dates.

1676165768253.png

Confirmation from dealer and Bronco Support, "your BRaptor is a priority 1 with a build day of 3/10, still build week of 3/6." Window sticker available on or about 3/1.

Four weeks for a delivery. CSX to Blue Island, IL, then BNSF to Henderson, CO, then truck to Cheyenne, WY.

Possible closing on or about 25-APR.
 
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Did the 2023 Raptor list increase again. For the hell of it I started to build a new Raptor on Ford.com. The base is listing 76,500 compared to my 73K. Am I getting something wrong here?
 
Jeffrman said:
Did the 2023 Raptor list increase again. For the hell of it I started to build a new Raptor on Ford.com. The base is listing 76,500 compared to my 73K. Am I getting something wrong here?
Click to expand...
Agreed, appears there was another price increase, base is 76,580.00
 
69988.png
 
Maybe there's a silver lining why my BRaptor didn't get built in January.

FoMoCo Recall Number: 23S06

Affects Broncos built in Wayne, Michigan, 14-Nov-2022 through 12-Jan-2023.

The Ford F-150 10R80 automatic transmission was developed jointly between Ford Motor Company and its historic rival, General Motors.
It can also be found in the Ford Expedition, Ford Mustang, Ford Ranger, Ford Bronco, Lincoln Navigator and abroad, the Ford Everest. The 10R80 is produced at the Ford Livonia Transmission Plant in Livonia, Michigan.
 
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ChiliPepper said:
Maybe there's a silver lining why my BRaptor didn't get built in January.

FoMoCo Recall Number: 23S06

Affects Broncos built in Wayne, Michigan, 14-Nov-2022 through 12-Jan-2023.

The Ford F-150 10R80 automatic transmission was developed jointly between Ford Motor Company and its historic rival, General Motors.
It can also be found in the Ford Expedition, Ford Mustang, Ford Ranger, Ford Bronco, Lincoln Navigator and abroad, the Ford Everest. The 10R80 is produced at the Ford Livonia Transmission Plant in Livonia, Michigan.
Click to expand...
Upto a 1000 vehicles across all the 10R60 usage models at 4 different plants, it’s quite possible no Bronco Raptors will be efected.
 
TurboS said:
Up to a 1000 vehicles across all the 10R60 usage models at 4 different plants, it’s quite possible no Bronco Raptors will be effected.
Click to expand...
Obviously, it depends on the serial number of the 10R80 transmission since it appears that the root of the problem is at the Livonia Transmission Plant.

1676673174904-png.6171
 
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FYI, all Bronco's including Bronco Raptor uses the 10R60. I didn't see in the recall if 10R80 or 10R60 was effected.
 

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TurboS said:
FYI, all Bronco's including Bronco Raptor uses the 10R60. I didn't see in the recall if 10R80 or 10R60 was effected.
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I guess you are correct. Why did I doubt you?

1676673850947.png
 
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ChiliPepper said:
It actually got assigned 10 days ago, but just today it slipped from 3/6 to 3/10. I'll wait until I see a window sticker before I believe any dates.

View attachment 6036
Confirmation from dealer and Bronco Support, "your BRaptor is a priority 1 with a build day of 3/10, still build week of 3/6." Window sticker available on or about 3/1.

Four weeks for a delivery. CSX to Blue Island, IL, then BNSF to Henderson, CO, then truck to Cheyenne, WY.

Possible closing on or about 25-APR.
Click to expand...

Like I said, I'm not holding my breath. Bumped again. :cautious: Looks like the MAP is only building 374A LUX pkgs.
 
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Jeffrman said:
I ordered Lux package and I was assigned the plant for March 6th and yesterday I too was bumped. No idea what is going on as this is my fourth bump.
Click to expand...

So, why are we getting bumped? Some say it is supply chain issues, but I don't buy that. I think it is dealer allocation, regional priority (DSO) and a very large backorder. If Ford opens the Bronco and BR order banks on 27-MAR without flushing the system, then the same delays that have plagued BR customers since JAN 2022 will continue.

Using a subset (N=127) of the small data set (N=313, 91 MY22 and 222 MY23) that I've assembled from active internet sales, I looked at MY23 BRs since 20-JAN for trends to explain why my 6-OCT order was scheduled for 23-JAN then subsequently bumped 7 times. Side note, half of the MY23s are listed at MSRP, i.e. the window sticker, but I'm sure there is an ADM if you call. It should be noted that this data set is a work in progress and is by no means representative of the entire BR production, let alone all Ford Bronco production. Take it at face value. :geek:

The data below show an overwhelming bias toward the order date, which says Ford got a tsunami of BR orders on 9-SEP just prior to the retail MY23 order banks opening on 12-SEP. See Ford CY22 order bank schedule below. COVP and DORA time stamps rule, all things being equal. There is also a strong bias towards DSO 41 (N=15, Chicago) and 21 (N=12, Atlanta). I will let you speculate why these markets have a high inventory of “used” MY23 BRs for sale. :unsure: My dealer happens to be in DSO 56, which only had 4 of the 127. The most popular color is Code Orange followed by Oxford White and Shadow Black. All orders have the LUX pkg except 2 orders. I did not buy into that technology. If I can’t stay in my lane or drive behind another vehicle, then I’ll just stick to tearing up the desert and crawling over rock. The leather pkg was selected 71% of the time, the carbon pkg 64% and orange seat belts only 44% of the orders.

In November 2022, Ford asked dealers for BR orders with forged Al wheels since they were experiencing a constraint with the standard Al alloy wheels. Only 60% of orders produced after 20-JAN had the desired forged Al wheels. Note that the cast Al wheels were dropped as an option for MY23.

BRs listed as delivered are generally seen for dealers that are closer to the MAP and use a convoy for delivery. Here is an example of an average order for DSO 41, note the fast production and delivery after a 5-month wait. Take these dates with a grain of salt since they are only as good as the system updates.

1676800982714.png
DSO 41

Transportation to the Southwest and West coast typically takes 4-5 weeks. Can you believe the delivery and destination charge has increased to $1795? Why is the D&D price the same for Royal Oak, MI (DSO=33) as it is for Seattle, WA (DSO=74), Los Angeles, CA (DSO=71) or Miami, FL (DSO=24)? Sharing the pain!? Is the D&D the same for Canada? What if you are in the Yukon?

Speaking of price increases, seven (7) window stickers were seen already pricing in the 10-FEB MY23 price increases. One appears to be retroactive after delivery. These orders were placed on 9-SEP so they appear to have gotten a double whammy with the SEP 2022 and FEB 2023 MY23 price increases. What does that say about price protection by Ford and/or the dealer for time stamps prior to the 10-FEB announcement? :eek:
[edit: repeat after me: THERE IS NO PRICE PROTECTION FOR SPECIALTY VEHICLES. This means you Mr./Ms. BRaptor buyer"]

Screenshot 2023-02-20 083318.jpg Screenshot 2023-02-20 083553.jpg Screenshot 2023-02-20 083926.jpg

It was seen that 11 orders were slightly before or after my 6-OCT time stamp. Given the high number of 9-SEP orders, it is a wonder how any other order gets scheduled. The price for coming late to the party? Maybe the orders get scheduled but then they are repeatedly bumped to the right? Curious how several late October orders were produced in early February ahead of other September orders. And these are just the orders we know about. I think this speaks to dealer allocation and regional priority.

1676802171649.png
DSO 56

I have a private theory why my 6-OCT order got bumped from the 23-JAN schedule week. My dealership is part of a 26-dealership group, all in DSO 56. One of those 26 dealerships (in St. George who shall not be named) mysteriously got two orders (in this small sample) scheduled and produced 26-JAN and 31-JAN. If my BR was built as scheduled, I'd be driving it on Monday. The inter-workings of Bronco production scheduling will never be known. :censored:
Ok, let it go.

In summary, it is all good. ;) I was planning on a SEP 2023 delivery, so any date before that is a blessing. And yes, I feel the pain of those Bronco customers that have been waiting for 2+ years. That said, the 1-DEC Ford email saying my order was schedule for 23-JAN got me very excited. Deep breath. I’ll just sit here waiting (somewhat) patiently :cautious: staring at the $10.5k pile of mods. Waiting . . . still waiting . . . waiting some more. :coffee:

Happy Trails


1676801467305.png

1676801482161.png

1676801494043.png


Historical info:
1676801516373.png
 
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ChiliPepper said:
ChiliPepper said:
So, why are we getting bumped? Some say it is supply chain issues, but I don't buy that. I think it is dealer allocation, regional priority (DSO) and a very large backorder. If Ford opens the Bronco and BR order banks on 27-MAR without flushing the system, then the same delays that have plagued BR customers since JAN 2022 will continue.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
love the data driven approach, but trying to sort rationality out of Ford’s supply chain is an exercise in futility. I tried to divine some reason through 5 schedule bumps (I thought that was bad, but 7? phew!) a “chip” hold and the unlocked mysteries of Americas rail system. Then I finally got it (and now I realize how lucky I was to get it as “early” as I did).

My only encouragement is that despite all my tearing of clothes and gnashing of teeth during the wait, I’ve loved the truck and the good times in it are erasing the bad taste of Ford’s process.

I didn’t think about Dora’s, schedule weeks or priority codes once yesterday while yanking folks out of the snow all day….

C21EC31A-DE40-4E7D-8F50-5A0D699D91A7.jpeg


Disclaimer: Snow may be deeper than it appears. Side effects include pointless spinning of tires, spontaneous prayers to various dieties and sh*t eating grins upon recovery. No Raptors we’re harmed in the making of this picture.

I hope yours (and everyone else’s) get built and delivered swiftly. I’m looking forward to seeing your build!
 
People like to say: “I consider relevant data when making important decisions.”

All well and good but does anyone really say otherwise? “I prefer seat-of-the-pants guesswork” doesn’t typically impress investors or any audience. So of course, people claim to be data-driven, even when they aren’t.

Worse, you can sincerely think you are data-driven while looking at data that’s incomplete, distorted, or just plain wrong. We live in a complex world. The kind of measurements that lead to good decisions aren’t easy even when everyone involved means well. Add in the fact that we’re all biased in different ways, and it all gets very complicated, very fast.

Happy Trails
 
ChiliPepper said:
So, why are we getting bumped? Some say it is supply chain issues, but I don't buy that. I think it is dealer allocation, regional priority (DSO) and a very large backorder. If Ford opens the Bronco and BR order banks on 27-MAR without flushing the system, then the same delays that have plagued BR customers since JAN 2022 will continue.

Using a subset (N=127) of the small data set (N=313, 91 MY22 and 222 MY23) that I've assembled from active internet sales, I looked at MY23 BRs since 20-JAN for trends to explain why my 6-OCT order was scheduled for 23-JAN then subsequently bumped 7 times. Side note, half of the MY23s are listed at MSRP, i.e. the window sticker, but I'm sure there is an ADM if you call. It should be noted that this data set is a work in progress and is by no means representative of the entire BR production, let alone all Ford Bronco production. Take it at face value. :geek:

The data below show an overwhelming bias toward the order date, which says Ford got a tsunami of BR orders on 9-SEP just prior to the retail MY23 order banks opening on 12-SEP. See Ford CY22 order bank schedule below. COVP and DORA time stamps rule, all things being equal. There is also a strong bias towards DSO 41 (N=15, Chicago) and 21 (N=12, Atlanta). I will let you speculate why these markets have a high inventory of “used” MY23 BRs for sale. :unsure: My dealer happens to be in DSO 56, which only had 4 of the 127. The most popular color is Code Orange followed by Oxford White and Shadow Black. All orders have the LUX pkg except 2 orders. I did not buy into that technology. If I can’t stay in my lane or drive behind another vehicle, then I’ll just stick to tearing up the desert and crawling over rock. The leather pkg was selected 71% of the time, the carbon pkg 64% and orange seat belts only 44% of the orders.

In November 2022, Ford asked dealers for BR orders with forged Al wheels since they were experiencing a constraint with the standard Al alloy wheels. Only 60% of orders produced after 20-JAN had the desired forged Al wheels. Note that the cast Al wheels were dropped as an option for MY23.

BRs listed as delivered are generally seen for dealers that are closer to the MAP and use a convoy for delivery. Here is an example of an average order for DSO 41, note the fast production and delivery after a 5-month wait. Take these dates with a grain of salt since they are only as good as the system updates.

View attachment 6247 DSO 41

Transportation to the Southwest and West coast typically takes 4-5 weeks. Can you believe the delivery and destination charge has increased to $1795? Why is the D&D price the same for Royal Oak, MI (DSO=33) as it is for Seattle, WA (DSO=74), Los Angeles, CA (DSO=71) or Miami, FL (DSO=24)? Sharing the pain!? Is the D&D the same for Canada? What if you are in the Yukon?

Speaking of cost increases, seven (7) window stickers were seen already pricing in the 10-FEB MY23 price increases. One appears to be retroactive after delivery. These orders were placed on 9-SEP so they appear to have gotten a double whammy with the SEP 2022 and FEB 2023 MY23 price increases. What does that say about price protection by Ford and/or the dealer for time stamps prior to the 10-FEB announcement? :eek:

It was seen that 11 orders were slightly before or after my 6-OCT time stamp. Given the high number of 9-SEP orders, it is a wonder how any other order gets scheduled. The price for coming late to the party? Maybe the orders get scheduled but then they are repeatedly bumped to the right? Curious how several late October orders were produced in early February ahead of other September orders. And these are just the orders we know about. I think this speaks to dealer allocation and regional priority.

View attachment 6252 DSO 56

I have a private theory why my 6-OCT order got bumped from the 23-JAN schedule week. My dealership is part of a 26-dealership group, all in DSO 56. One of those 26 dealerships (in St. George who shall not be named) mysteriously got two orders (in this small sample) scheduled and produced 26-JAN and 31-JAN. If my BR was built as scheduled, I'd be driving it on Monday. The inter-workings of Bronco production scheduling will never be known. :censored:
Ok, let it go.

In summary, it is all good. ;) I was planning on a SEP 2023 delivery, so any date before that is a blessing. And yes, I feel the pain of those Bronco customers that have been waiting for 2+ years. That said, the 1-DEC Ford email saying my order was schedule for 23-JAN got me very excited. Deep breath. I’ll just sit here waiting (somewhat) patiently :cautious: staring at the $10.5k pile of mods. Waiting . . . still waiting . . . waiting some more. :coffee:

Happy Trails


View attachment 6248
View attachment 6249
View attachment 6250

Historical info:
View attachment 6251
Click to expand...
I appreciate the time you put into your post. Thanks
 
ChiliPepper said:
Speaking of price increases, seven (7) window stickers were seen already pricing in the 10-FEB MY23 price increases. One appears to be retroactive after delivery. These orders were placed on 9-SEP so they appear to have gotten a double whammy with the SEP 2022 and FEB 2023 MY23 price increases. What does that say about price protection by Ford and/or the dealer for time stamps prior to the 10-FEB announcement? :eek:

View attachment 6279 View attachment 6280 View attachment 6281
Click to expand...
This is a big deal. Has anyone waiting on an order talked to their dealer about "price protection"?
 
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